Vulnerabilità istituzionale dei comuni e infiltrazioni criminali: evidenze dagli scioglimenti comunali in Italia

Abstract

This paper develops a composite indicator of municipal vulnerability to organized crime infiltration in Italy. The proposed index (VULN2) combines demographic, socio-economic, fis- cal and geographical characteristics of municipalities in order to capture structural conditions associated with institutional fragility. Using a panel dataset of Italian municipalities for the period 2005–2023, we examine whether higher levels of territorial vulnerability are associated with an increased probability of municipal council dissolution due to mafia infiltration under Article 143 of the Italian Local Government Act. Empirical estimates based on linear probabil- ity models with municipal fixed effects and rare-events logit models show that municipalities located in the upper tail of the vulnerability distribution exhibit a significantly higher risk of dissolution. The results suggest that institutional vulnerability is not evenly distributed across territories but tends to concentrate in a relatively small number of municipalities characterized by multiple structural fragilities. The proposed indicator provides a useful empirical tool for identifying areas potentially more exposed to criminal infiltration and may support monitoring and prevention policies aimed at protecting local institutions